It’s not exactly an iron law, but for the last quarter century, it’s been a pretty good rule of thumb: when the American people go into the voting booth, they vote for the candidate with whom they would most like to have a beer.In 1980 and 1984, they picked breezy Ronald Reagan over pious Jimmy Carter and dour Walter Mondale. In 1988, they picked affable George H. W. Bush over stuffy Michael Dukakis. In 1992 and 1996, Elvis-emulating Bill Clinton beat the now wimpy Bush and the sour Bob Dole. And in 2000, frat boy George W. Bush beat the sighing Al Gore and the stiff John Kerry.
But for as reliable an indicator as the beer-drinking question has proven to be, Democrats have not had a history of considering it very much. Remember, in the intra-party contests, pious Jimmy Carter defeated the raucous Teddy Kennedy, Mondale trumped the cool Gary Hart, Dukakis topped the flashy Jesse Jackson, and Gore beat Bill Bradley, who seemed a bit of an intellectual but who had had a lot of champagne poured on his egghead during his days as a professional athlete. For a party long considered the more liberal on social issues, the Democrats have a long history of picking a standard-bearer with very conservative habits. Among recent Democratic candidates, only Bill Clinton seemed to get any fun out of life.
Which brings us to this year.
Who would you rather have a drink with, Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama?
Neither of them, neither the policy wonk or the law professor, seems to have spent an excessive amount of time in a taproom. But based on results up to now, most of the voters in the Democratic primaries seem to have chosen Obama—perhaps preferring his cool jazz merlot to Clinton’s more uptight white wine spritzer.
Will Pennsylvania change that? Coming into the primary, Clinton seems to be winning the votes of regular folks. She got a big boost last week when Obama said that people who live in small towns have become bitter and cling to their religious beliefs and their guns.
No wonder, after pausing to jump all over his poor choice of words, did Clinton allow herself to be filmed in a bar in Crown Point, Indiana, downing a shot of Crown Royal whiskey, and chasing it with a beer. She may not be the one you’d choose to have a beer with, but apparently she’s choosing to have one with you.
Which brings us to Senator McCain. Last week he appeared on Hardball before a live audience at Villanova University. During the question session, one student asked the senator “if you would care to join me for a shot after this?”
McCain didn’t answer directly, but complimented the question. Of course he would. When young people start asking the old man to join them for drinks, his mind might start getting fuzzy, but his path to the White House grows clearer.