Here’s what’s happening with five weeks until election day. Obama‘s lead is moving beyond measurable to solid. He is achieving in some polls the talismanic mark of 50 percent. He is opening leads in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Missouri. Two days ago, a GOP House of Representatives, egged on by phone callers roused up by right wing talk radio, rejected a financial bailout that sent the Dow plunging 777 points. (My daughter’s college fund, last week worth $16500, is today worth $15800. My 401k, last week worth $63000, is today worth $59000. I do not think my numbers are atypical.) In the face of the disappearance of a trillion dollars worth of wealth, almost 90% of the public expressed a desire for the House to pass a rescue bill that will restore confidence. The Senate passed their version yesterday, and I’ll bet dollars to donuts the House will come around tomorrow. If the Congressional Black Caucus in the House, which voted overwhelmingly against Obama, does not allow itself to be delivered by Obama, then they are missing a golden opportunity to make their man look like a leader. More to the point, the Republicans are largely being blamed for this defeat, and I do not think they will want to own disaster that could leave ths country in a financial torpor for decades. But first, tonight, Palin, who cannot rescue McCain and may no longer even be able to rescue herself, debates Biden; she has to score a grand slam touchdown; he just has to behave. There is momentary stability in Iraq, but Afghnistan is slipping out of control, and an America weary after six years of an incompetently managed conflict wakes up to challenges from Iran and North Korea. I do not think McCain can do better in the upcoming debates than he did in the first one, and after the first one, he lost two points in the polls. A certain inevitability will begin to govern the race; the longer Obama looks like he can win, the more he will win; as his election seems increasingly likely, McCain’s money will dry up, and the reluctant, the recalcitrant, the fence-sitters will swing Obama’s way, and he will widen his lead and win going away. And when he does, he better have some damn ideas about what he wants to do, because he will own substantial majorities in two houses of Congress and an electorate hungry for results. Still, with five weeks left, would it not seem that McCain has enough time on the clock to make some changes? Not really. In Ohio, Virginia, and a bunch of other states, voting begins today. I’ve said all along that this feels like 1980, with Obama in the role of Reagan, and McCain as Carter. Reagan won that election 50.7 to 41.1. I don’t think this one will be that close, and we will see the dawn of a new progressive era. Of course, I’ve been wrong before.