Going into the weekend, smart money was saying that Mitt Romney would be ecstatic if he emerged from the Tuesday Iowa caucuses with a strong second or even third place in a dead heat finish, and would be over the moon if he won. Somehow, even after eking out an eight-vote win over Rick Santorum last night (30,015 votes to 30,007), I don’t think Romney should feel so glad. He won 25% of the vote. It’s the same 25% he won four years ago, when he was better positioned as the true conservative in the race. This is the same 25% he has had all year. The man has shown no growth. People have had a good long look at him, and month by month, they have entertained infatuations with one alternative after another, most of them manifestly limited candidates, all in an effort to avoid supporting him. (As further proof, turnout was about half what it was in 2008.) Santorum may prove to be a resilient competitor, but he’s going to have to show me that he wasn’t just the latest man standing, someone most people never took seriously until it was either him or Romney, and time ran out before his bubble burst. Romney’s strategy seems to be that of the long distance runner, the one who things he’ll win the race if he happens to be the last man in the competition. The Republicans are relying heavily on their united hatred of Barack Obama, but I don’t really think that going to be enough if only 25 percent of them have any enthusiasm for Romney. Any Democrat who remembers 1968 or 1972 or 1980 knows that story. I’m still waiting for another shoe to drop.
