Three years to the day that he hit his 500th home run, Alex Rodriguez, breaking a 12-day, 47 at-bat homerless drought, hit his 600th home run in a 5-1 Yankee victory over Toronto, becoming only the 7th man to reach that milestone. SI.com’s Joe Sheehan thinks it’s inevitable that Rodriguez will one day hold the all-time record now possessed by Barry Bonds. “Rodriguez’s early start leaves him plenty of room to decline, as well as to suffer the minor injuries that often chip away at an older player’s at-bats, and still chase down Bonds with room to spare.” Below is Sheehan’s “very conservative estimate” of the remainder of A-Rod’s career, beginning with the rest of 2010, showing Year, Projected Number of Plate Appearances, and Projected Home Runs. “If this path were to hold,” predicts Sheehan, “Rodriguez would hit his 763rd home run early in the the 2018 season.” He would be 43 years.
2010 220 12
2011 595 31
2012 561 27
2013 526 24
2014 508 21
2015 455 19
2016 430 15
2017 397 13
2018 323 11
2019 211 6